Travel growth halved after the Iran war began

Outbound travel from the world’s 20 largest tourism source markets grew 2.8% in January–July 2026, to 322.8m trips. Growth halved once the Iran war began: from an average of 4.6% a month in October–February to 2.2% in March–July.

July looks like a turn, at +5.5% with 17 of the 20 markets growing, the most since the war began. But about 10% of the month is still estimated, and momentum still points down: three-month growth (2.6%) is below the twelve-month average (3.3%). August will show whether the rebound holds.

The US, Germany and Mexico each added about 1.4m trips this year, and Chinese Taipei 1.3m. China (−1.3m) is the one big decline, and that is a Japan story, not an Iran one: Chinese trips to Japan fell 3.2m after Beijing’s travel warning.

How to read it: bars show monthly year-on-year growth. Arrows show momentum (three-month growth against the twelve-month average): ▲ speeding up, ▼ slowing, ● steady.

Data: trips from the 20 origin markets to 54 destination countries, compiled from official arrivals statistics in each destination. July 2026 is partly estimated.

Full monthly tracker with country and city breakdowns: The Quiet Analyst on LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tourism-growth-cools-iran-war-drags-desmond-choong-0ciac/