Where Data Tells the Story
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The summer of 2026 may have fewer available airline seats than any summer since the pandemic, and it has not yet started.
S&P Global Energy Platts data, accessed via the IATA Fuel Price Monitor, show global jet fuel prices at approximately $170 to $190 per barrel in May 2026, still roughly double the January 2026 baseline of approximately $85 to $95 per barrel.
It follows a conflict-driven spike that peaked near $220 per barrel in March.
Airlines have already canceled 13,000 May flights and removed two million seats, according to Cirium.
Summer schedules, built when fuel was $90 per barrel, are now being operated at $180 per barrel.
The capacity reduction visible in May is the leading edge of what arrives in June, July, and August.