Where Data Tells the Story
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Amid warnings from the WTO that world merchandise trade could slip into outright decline this year and with Red‑Sea shipping lanes still only partly restored, the map below helps anchor where trade is still most deeply regionalised—and how big those regional arteries really are.
A duopoly at the top.
The EU’s single market remains the world’s largest internal marketplace (≈ US $5.9 trn a year), but the four‑year‑old RCEP in Asia‑Pacific is already nipping at its heels on ≈ US $5.4 trn. The two blocs now account for well over half of all commerce that happens inside trade agreements.
Membership size ≠ trade heft.
AfCFTA’s 54 signatures dwarf every other pact on the map, yet its intra‑African trade sits just above US $100 bn—barely 2 % of the EU total. Conversely, USMCA’s three‑country club punches far above its weight at roughly US $1.8–1.9 trn. The graphic underlines that legal frameworks alone don’t guarantee dense trade ties; infrastructure, rules‑of‑origin discipline and production complementarities matter more.
Regional “near‑shoring” is already reality.
In 2023, goods shipped between EU members were 1.6 × larger than the bloc’s exports to the rest of the world, and manufacturing still makes up about three‑quarters of intra‑RCEP flows. In other words, many supply chains are already clustered regionally—giving firms a head‑start as they hunt for tariff‑safe or war‑safe routes.