Mind the Goods Gap: Eight-plus years of the US–China trade gap!

The past eight-plus years have seen the US–China trade relationship evolve through tariffs, truces, and policy shifts. Beginning in 2018, successive rounds of tariffs and negotiations have shaped the flow of goods between the world’s two largest economies.

Key Phases:

· Jan 2018 – Jan 2020 (Trump 1.0): Tariffs were imposed in waves across Lists 1–4, escalating the trade war before culminating in the Phase One deal of January 2020.

· 2021 – 2024 (Biden): The Biden administration largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, introducing only limited targeted hikes in late 2024 and early 2025.

· 2025 (Trump 2.0): A new cycle of confrontation began with a 10% “fentanyl tariff” on all Chinese imports, rising to 34% reciprocal duties in April, followed by a truce in May — later extended in August.

This chart tracks the monthly U.S.–China goods trade deficit from 2017 to mid-2025, situating these policy milestones against the shifting trade gap.

Note: trade deficit data to June 2025. Events shown are key tariff and agreement milestones for context and may not directly align with deficit changes.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

Research & Visualisation: Aneesh Anand