China’s trade surplus just keeps growing, as the world prepares for Trump 2.0

China’s trade surplus is hitting record highs, with customs data from the world’s second-largest economy showing that its export-heavy economy is more export-heavy than ever before.

The difference between the value of goods imported and exported in China surged to $785 billion in the first 10 months this year, the highest on record for that period and an increase of almost 16% from 2023, per Bloomberg. That is an imbalance that won’t have gone unnoticed by the newly elected Trump administration, which has previously discussed slapping tariffs of 60% or more on shipments from China during the campaign — indeed, Google searches for the word “tariff” have soared in the last week (chart here).

The case of China’s ballooning trade surplus is partly a short term story of how manufacturers ramped up shipments ahead of the busy season, and some potentially anticipating tariffs in the event of a Trump victory as exports soared in October ahead of economists' expectations.

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