📈 U.S.–China Trade Disruptions: Supply Chain Risks and Economic Impacts

In 2024, China accounted for 13.4% of total U.S. goods imports, including 26.8% of consumer goods—24.7% of durable goods and 38.2% of semi-durable goods. With high U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, there is an increased risk of retail shortages, which could reduce employment and dampen economic activity in logistics and distribution.

Industrial supplies (mostly processed), capital goods, and parts and accessories for transport equipment made up $308 billion—67%—of U.S. imports from China in 2024, while consumer goods totaled $130 billion (28%). This highlights that U.S. economic activity depends more on Chinese industrial inputs than on consumer products. China accounted for 15.7% of total imports in these categories, including 11.1% of industrial supplies, 20.1% of capital goods and components, and 13.4% of transport-related parts.

Although imports from China represent only about 1.5% of U.S. GDP, the economy remains vulnerable to supply chain shocks. The risk extends beyond disruptions in transportation and distribution; U.S. manufacturing sectors rely heavily on Chinese parts, raw materials, intermediate goods, and capital equipment. The absence of even a single component—however small in value—can halt an entire production line. These disruptions can ripple through supply chains, affecting both upstream suppliers and downstream users.

Transitioning to non-Chinese sources takes time, requiring firms to identify alternatives, reconfigure production processes, and ensure technical compatibility. As a result, a localized disruption can quickly escalate, potentially affecting a significant share of U.S. economic activity and heightening the risk of a broader recession.