Where Data Tells the Story
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Since the onset of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, the composition of the U.S. trade deficit has undergone a significant transformation. Between Q3 2018 and Q1 2025, the U.S. trade deficit with China fell from 2.0% to 1.0% of GDP, while the deficit with the rest of the world rose from 2.2% to 3.6%. This shift suggests that some trade flows may have been rerouted through third countries, as businesses adjusted to tariffs and other restrictions imposed on direct U.S.-China trade.