Projections Show Frontier Tech Surging to $16.4tn, Led by AI

The frontier technology market, covering AI, IoT, blockchain, green tech, and more, is set for a dramatic transformation.

According to UNCTAD, the sector’s value will expand sixfold, from $2.5 trillion in 2023 to $16.4 trillion in 2033.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is projected to drive much of this growth. Rising from just 7% of market share in 2023 to nearly 29% by 2033, AI alone could account for $4.8 trillion in value—making it the dominant frontier technology.

In contrast, other once-prominent sectors are projected to lose ground. IoT, which held over a third of the market in 2023, is forecast to shrink to less than a fifth by 2033.

Electric vehicles and solar PV are also expected to see reduced shares, even as absolute values climb in some cases.

Key Takeaways

AI: Jumps from 7% (2023) to 29% (2033) — nearly one-third of frontier tech.
IoT: Falls from 36% to 19%, losing its top position.
Blockchain: Emerges as a significant player, from near zero to 14%.
EVs & Solar PV: See declining market shares over the decade.
Other: Remains stable at ~29%, reflecting a diverse mix of smaller technologies.

Note: Figures represent projected market shares of frontier technologies in 2023 vs. 2033.

Source: UNCTAD, Technology and Innovation Report 2025.