Where Data Tells the Story
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ChatGPT was 32x bigger than Claude a year ago. Now it’s 5.5x. In one modeled scenario, the lead disappears in April 2037.
The gap is closing fast
ChatGPT is still the most visited AI chatbot by a wide margin, with 6.6B monthly web visits in August 2026. But in August 2025, it was 32 times bigger than Claude. One year later, it was only 5.5 times bigger.
What the chart shows
This chart is one modeled path where Claude catches ChatGPT, out of 250,000 forecast simulations through April 2037.
How the lead disappears
ChatGPT stays No. 1 in most of the simulated paths. But Claude was the only challenger that caught it in a meaningful share of them, about twice as often as Gemini.
Methodology:
OneLittleWeb tracked monthly web visits for ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and DeepSeek from August 2025 to August 2026, using estimates from Ahrefs and Semrush via its Most Visited Websites dashboard. Because visits swung sharply month to month, the model used an AR(1) approach on monthly changes and ran 250,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The figures cover web visits only, not app or API usage. Full methodology and formulas are in the study.