Is the Box Office Becoming More Top-Heavy?

With “Jurassic Park: Rebirth” and “Superman”, two summer blockbusters are currently dominating at the North American box office, highlighting a trend that has become more and more evident since the Covid-19 pandemic. In recent years, the box office has become increasingly "top-heavy", meaning that a small number of blockbusters account for a larger share of total ticket sales than they did in the past.

In four of the past five years, the top 10 movies in North America accounted for more than 40 percent of the total annual box office revenue, according to Statista calculations based on data from Box Office Mojo. That’s a notable increase from pre-pandemic years, when earnings were more evenly spread across a wider range of titles. From 2000 to 2009, the top 10 movies of each year brought in an average of 25 percent of total box office revenue and between 2010 and 2019 the top 10 movies accounted for an average share of 30 percent of the annual box office.

Several factors contribute to this trend. First of all, audiences are more selective about which films they see in theaters, often reserving the experience for major franchise entries, sequels, or aggressively marketed event movies. At the same time, studios are prioritizing fewer theatrical releases and channeling more resources into these tentpole films, while smaller and mid-budget titles are increasingly released directly to streaming platforms or in very short or geographically limited theatrical runs.

The consequences of a top-heavy box office are significant. It makes it harder for independent or smaller productions to find space and success in theaters, leading to a less diverse theatrical landscape. Despite studios’ increased focus on fewer blockbusters being rooted in risk aversion, it also makes the industry more financially vulnerable in a way: if just a few of the expensive and heavily promoted major titles underperform, the studio behind it and the overall box office can take a substantial hit.

At the very least, the trend towards franchise films, sequels and big-budget blockbusters is threatening the theatrical future of smaller, independent productions and arthouse films. If these movies can no longer find audiences large enough to justify a theatrical release, they could vanish from the big screen altogether, relegating them to a streaming-only future.