Tight Race in Canadian Election As Liberals Hang On

The Conservative Party of Canada led the polls for today's general election previous to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down in March. However, since then, Trudeau's Liberals have been back on top as Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's populist style did not bode well considering the Trump administration and its boisterous trade war.

The Liberals seemed down and out when polling stood at a meager 20 percent at the start of the year as dissatisfaction with the governing party and Prime Minister Trudeau boiled over following a string of ethics scandals that eventually led to his resignation. However, things are different in the Trump era and once the U.S. trade war that targets Canada heavily started to heat up, some Canadian voters turned away from the Conservatives and their firebrand Poilievre, who campaigned around the Liberals' recent failures. Liberal leader Mark Carney has meanwhile branded himself as a voice of reason against Donald Trump and the U.S. As of April 27, the Liberals had a narrow lead again, with 42.8 percent of voters saying they would pick the party in this election and 39.2 percent saying they supported the Conservatives.

If no party reaches an absolute majority in the election, the front runner would typically form a coalition government with another party. The New Democratic Party, polling at around 8 percent, could be such a partner. In the last parliament, the Liberals however decided to rule as a minority government, with only informal support from the NDP, which nevertheless rendered them able to pass laws.