Polling Error in the Past Five U.S. Presidential Elections 🗳️

What We’re Showing

This graphic compares polling averages to the popular vote in the past five U.S. presidential elections. Polling averages were sourced from RealClear Polling.

Key Takeaway

• Based on this sample of five elections, polls were the most accurate at estimating the popular vote in 2004 and 2008 (polling error of 0.9 and 0.3 respectively)
• On the other hand, polling error was largest in the 2012 and 2020 elections, and surprisingly higher than in 2016