Harris With Razorthin Lead in Battleground States
As of Sept. 10, 2024, polling averages aggregated by website RealClear Polling show a razorthin lead for Kamala Harris in battleground states ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. Democratic contender Harris led her opponent, former President Donald Trump, by 0.2 percentage points, carrying - as of now - the states of Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. In the two Great Lakes states, Harris' lead was upwards of 1 percentage point as of the latest data. Meanwhile, Donald Trump was ahead in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, leading the latter state with a margin of more than 1 percentage point.
Important battleground Pennsylvania was rated as a tie by RealClear Polling, which is significant because the state has 19 electoral votes, the most out of the seven considered most embattled in the upcoming election. Harris led in states that have a total of 21 electoral votes while Trump was the erstwhile leader in state with 43 electoral votes, showing that Harris' overall lead might not pan out positively, at least if she doesn't end up carrying Pennsylvania.
The source also calculates how many electoral votes in the 2024 election are expected to come from states usually voting Democratic or Republican and likely/leaning to vote Democratic or Republican. Here, Harris has 208 potential votes while Trump has 219. Harris would therefore have to carry slightly more of battleground votes, which in this calculation include an additional 13 from Virginia, four from New Hampshire and one from Nebraska's second district. The state allows its electoral votes to be split up between candidates.
However, Trump has a higher number of electoral votes coming from states only leaning Republican and not a relatively safe to vote Republican, including 70 from Florida and Texas. Meanwhile, Harris only has 17 electoral college votes rated as such, coming from Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico. Only 93 votes are considered quite safe for Trump, opposite 139 for Harris.