Countries Most Exposed To A Potential Trump Presidency
What We're Showing
The 10 countries most exposed to policy changes under a potential Trump presidency, based on The Economist's Trump Risk Index.
About the Trump Risk Index
In his previous term in office, Donald Trump showed he wasn't afraid to make sweeping policy decisions that had impacts reaching beyond U.S. borders. The Trump Risk Index uses various indicators to measure the exposure of the U.S.’s 70 largest trading partners to policy changes Trump would likely enact if he takes the White House.
The scores are based on several trade, security, and immigration indicators. Examples of indicators include:
- Trade: Sensitive exports to the U.S, reliance on U.S. in goods and trade, bilateral trade balance
- Security: U.S. military aid, U.S. troop presence, military spending, spending on U.S. arms
- Immigration: Visas issued, remittances
Close U.S. Partners Most Exposed
Mexico is the most exposed country overall to a potential Trump presidency, largely due to its high trade and immigration exposure. The country is the top source of immigrants to the U.S., and is heavily reliant on the U.S. for goods trade.
Other Latin American countries close to the U.S. also rank among the top 10, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Panama.
Dataset
| Country | Trade | Security | Immigration | Trump Risk Score (0 = least exposure, 100 = most exposure) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 100 | 56.3 | 44.4 | 71.4 |
| Costa Rica | 33.8 | 100 | 27.8 | 59.1 |
| Germany | 55.5 | 72.8 | 7.7 | 52.9 |
| Dominican Republic | 29 | 56.7 | 91.4 | 52.6 |
| Panama | 13.1 | 100 | 27.7 | 50.8 |
| China | 76.7 | 46.8 | 4.7 | 50.4 |
| Japan | 53.8 | 65.3 | 8 | 49.2 |
| El Salvador | 18.2 | 52 | 100 | 48.1 |
| Vietnam | 64.4 | 39.8 | 27 | 47.1 |
| Honduras | 26.7 | 51.7 | 72.4 | 45.8 |
Data sources
For trade indicators: Widening surplus in bilateral trade balance, trend in bilateral trade, and current-account balance indicates higher exposure. Sensitive exports include steel, aluminium and cars, with more sensitive exports indicating higher exposure. Higher reliance on the U.S. in goods and trade indicates higher exposure. For security indicators: Higher reliance on U.S. military aid represented higher exposure, high troop presence represented higher exposure, lower national defense spending and spending on U.S. arms represented higher exposure, no defense alliance with the U.S. represented more exposure. For immigration indicators: Higher exposure means a country has a higher number of visas issued and is more reliant on remittances from the U.S.
