Where Data Tells the Story
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Japan's likely new prime minister and the first female expected to hold the office, Sanae Takaichi, would be starting out in a tough environment. Her party, the ruling Liberal Democrats, lost control of the upper house earlier this year. The political hardliner is having her premiership backed by the right-wing opposition Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), after the LDP and its long-term partner Komeito also lost their majority in the lower house as of last year. Historically, Japan has been plagued by frequent changes in prime minister, as seen in an analysis of the past 45 years.
In this time period, the majority of Japanese prime ministers did not survive a single, four-year legislative period and left office (often much) sooner. Since July 1980, the country saw only three prime ministers who completed at least one four-year term, Yasuhiro Nakasone (five years in office between 1982 and 1987), Junichiro Koizumi (5.5 years in office between 2001 and 2006) and finally Shinzo Abe, who stayed in power for almost eight years in his consecutive terms between 2012 and 2020.
During the same time, the country also saw 20 prime ministers (including Abe's first term) who were in office for an average of just 16 months, between 3 years and just 2 months each, as political gridlock, coalition issues, low approval ratings and factionism within the ruling LDP have all weakened prime ministers. Furthermore, some observers see cultural factors at play as reasons for Japanese politicans resigning more frequently in order to preserve honor and accountability highly valued in the country.