Charting Fluctuating Global Uncertainty

From Brexit and US-China trade tensions to the pandemic and war, successive shocks have combined to keep uncertainty elevated.

The chart above shows how the drivers have evolved over time. Uncertainty jumped following the United Kingdom’s unexpected vote to leave the European Union—and soared even further after the surprise outcome of the 2016 presidential election in the United States. This was followed by US trade tensions with China, which caused major uncertainty for the world.

Another big spike followed in early 2020 with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, followed less than two years later by another shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and renewed trade uncertainty associated with the risk of geoeconomic fragmentation.