Ukraine's Mineral Wealth

While a peace deal in which Ukraine's mineral wealth is leveraged to create security guarantees and continued international support was considered on the table for the U.S. as well as European powers previously, comments by U.S. President Donald Trump over past two weeks have seriously damaged the prospect. 

Trump said last week that the U.S. will continue to send funds to Ukraine, but that he wanted to tap into the country's mineral wealth to the tune of $500 billion, far beyond wartime aid paid out or allocated by the United States. A draft deal showed that Trump was seeking 50 percent ownership in Ukraine's "rare earth" deposits. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Trump doubled down, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator for having postponed elections under martial law after having blamed Ukraine and NATO allies for the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The comments came on the heels of a controversial meeting on the war earlier this week of Russian and U.S. official in Saudi Arabia - without Ukrainian or European involvement. The deal is now off the table, but Kiev has reportedly been drafting a counteroffer with a larger focus on security guarantees.

The idea to use Ukraine's minerals in a peace deal was debuted as part of the country's Victory Plan, unveiled in October, and is also part of a larger reconstruction and EU accession plan, called the Ukraine Plan. Kiev reportedly delayed the signing of such a deal with the United States to carry it out under the Trump administration.

Ukraine has an abundance of mineral wealth for a country of its size. However, rare earths are not the focus, as the country does not actually produce any. Data on their deposits in Ukraine is also scant and the United States Geological Survey list only known reserves of one out of 17 rare earth elements - scandium. The country does produce 2 percent of bromine worldwide, which is used as a flame retardant. It also produces 1.3 percent of global Ilmenite, a titanium mineral concentrate used in titanium production, and holds 1.2 percent of known titanium pigment reserves (the most common type of deposit). Titanium is a strategic mineral due to its military applications. The same is true for Gallium, which Ukraine produced before the war and which is also used in semiconductors and biomedical applications. Also halted due to the war is alumina and manganese production, two agents in steel and aluminium production. More traditional mineral production out of Ukraine includes 1.7 percent of the world's iron ore, 0.5 percent of its pig iron and 2.2 percent of its peat. Additionally, Ukraine is in the top 8 of global Mercury reserves and holds deposits of garnet, an abrasive and gemstone.

Ukraine makes up 0.4 percent of the world's landmass and accounted for around 0.17 percent of global GDP in 2023 (0.21 percent pre-war).