Where Data Tells the Story
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After surging more than 80% year-over-year between May 2020 and February 2021, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet began to decelerate, eventually turning negative in November 2022. Since then, the pace of contraction has steadily moderated — easing from a 14.0% year-over-year decline in March 2024 to just 5.1% by November 2025.