Where Data Tells the Story
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Prediction markets have moved from niche corners of the internet to a rapidly growing segment of global trading activity. At their core, they function like betting exchanges, allowing users to buy and sell contracts based on the probability of future events, from elections and economic decisions to sports and entertainment outcomes.
Activity has surged in recent months, with trading volumes hitting a record $3.5B in a single week in late January 2026. The spike wasn’t driven by a single event, but a convergence of high-interest moments including the U.S. Fed meeting, the Super Bowl, and the Grammys, showing how these markets thrive on attention-heavy, time-bound events. Earlier peaks around the U.S. presidential election also highlight how politics remains one of the biggest drivers of participation.
What’s driving the growth is a mix of accessibility, real-time information flow, and the appeal of turning opinions into tradable positions. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are making it easier for users to express views on everything from macroeconomics to pop culture thereby blurring the line between forecasting, speculation, and entertainment.