Where Data Tells the Story
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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for two decades, then reversed sharply. The annual average fell from 6.03% in 2000 to 0.89% in 2020, a 5.14-percentage-point decline. It then climbed to 4.29% in 2025. That five-year rebound recovered two-thirds of the preceding 20-year fall and put the yield above its 2010 average. This is not a bond-return chart. It measures the implied market yield on a theoretical 10-year Treasury; when yields rise, prices of existing fixed-rate bonds generally fall. It is also not a mortgage rate or the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. The attached CSV contains the full annual series and the calculation method.