Where Data Tells the Story
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In just six months, the World Bank’s 2026 commodity outlook swung from broad declines to sharp price gains. Its October 2025 forecast expected the overall commodity-price index to fall 7% in 2026. The April 2026 update instead projects a 16% rise—a 23 percentage-point revision. Energy moved from a forecast 10% decline to a 24% increase, a 34-point revision. Fertilizer shifted from −5% to +31%, the largest comparable revision at 36 points. The forecast annual average for Brent crude rose from $60 to $86 per barrel: $26 higher, or 43.3%. Every comparable measure changed direction or moved sharply higher. The reversal followed a Middle East supply shock and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The April baseline assumes the most acute disruptions end in May and shipping through Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026; a longer disruption could produce materially different prices. These figures are forecasts for calendar 2026, not realized full-year changes. Percentage-point revisions equal the April forecast minus the October forecast; Brent’s percentage revision is ($86 ÷ $60) − 1. The visual includes the complete set of directly comparable 2026 metrics explicitly stated in both public World Bank press releases: the overall commodity, energy and fertilizer indexes plus Brent’s annual-average price. Index percentages are annual price changes, while Brent is in nominal U.S. dollars per barrel.