Commodity Bull and Bear Markets (2000–2023)
From the beginning of the 21st century to 2023, commodity markets experienced bullish periods in 2003–2008, 2010–2011, 2017–2018, and 2021–2022.
Global markets witnessed substantial growth in commodity prices in 2021 and 2022, driven by various factors such as supply chain disruptions, a surge in consumption demand due to easing COVID-19 restrictions, and geopolitical events like the Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with sanctions against the Russian economy and exports. The conflict and sanctions on Russia's energy exports led to a surge in energy and other commodity prices from February to the autumn of 2022. However, the overall commodity price index returned to levels observed before the Russia invasion of Ukraine in January 2023.
According to World Bank data covering the period from 2019 to 2022, the average annual price index for all commodity increased by 80%, energy by 95%, non-energy by 50%, food and beverage by 59%, base metals by 50%, and precious metals by 30%. Despite significant decline in 2023, commodity prices remained elevated with a 27% increase in December 2023 compared to 2019.