Where Data Tells the Story
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The largest 2025 commodity-price forecast miss in the World Bank's October 2024 outlook was Arabica coffee. The Bank projected an annual average of $5.00/kg; the final 2025 Pink Sheet average was $8.47/kg—69.4% above forecast. Coconut oil followed at 60.0% above forecast. Gold, one of the world's most familiar investment assets, averaged $3,442 per troy ounce against a $2,325 forecast, a 48.0% miss. Tobacco, TSP fertilizer and DAP rounded out the five largest absolute errors. The comparison covers all 46 individual commodity prices in the October 2024 forecast table. Forty-four had numeric 2025 actuals in the March 2026 annual dataset and were ranked; barley and shrimp were excluded because their 2025 actuals were unavailable. Forecast error = (2025 actual ÷ 2025 forecast − 1) × 100. Rankings use the absolute percentage error, while signs show whether actual prices finished above or below forecast. Forecast and actual values use the World Bank's nominal U.S.-dollar series and original commodity-specific units. This measures forecast error, not forecasting quality across multiple years or the causes of price movements.