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๐Ÿ‘€ There is Only One European Country at Population Replacement Rate

๐Ÿ‘€ There is Only One European Country at Population Replacement Rate

Key Takeaways

  • Almost all of Europe is below the population replacement rate, per UN estimates for 2025.
  • Monaco is the only exception, and is likely skewed upwards due to its small size (39K residents).
  • Persistently low fertility rates below the replacement threshold will result in population declines, unless offset by immigration. 

The Lowdown on Fertility Rates

The fertility rate measures the average # of children a woman in a specific area will have over the course of her lifetime.

From this number, statisticians can make assumptions about future population change.

How?

As it happens, 2.1 is a key threshold.

At this level, the areaโ€™s population remains stable. Above it, itโ€™s likely to grow (barring sudden war, disease, and famine). And below it, itโ€™s likely to decline (barring immigration).

There is only one European country at this threshold: Monaco.

๐Ÿ‘€ There is Only One European Country at Population Replacement Rate - Voronoi