👀 There is Only One European Country at Population Replacement Rate

Key Takeaways

• Almost all of Europe is below the population replacement rate, per UN estimates for 2025.
• Monaco is the only exception, and is likely skewed upwards due to its small size (39K residents).
• Persistently low fertility rates below the replacement threshold will result in population declines, unless offset by immigration. 

The Lowdown on Fertility Rates

The fertility rate measures the average # of children a woman in a specific area will have over the course of her lifetime.

From this number, statisticians can make assumptions about future population change.

How?

As it happens, 2.1 is a key threshold.

At this level, the area’s population remains stable. Above it, it’s likely to grow (barring sudden war, disease, and famine). And below it, it’s likely to decline (barring immigration).

There is only one European country at this threshold: Monaco.