Where Data Tells the Story
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a 60-percent chance of a season more active than usual for 2025 Atlantic hurricanes. So far, only one hurricane has occured with the season running from June 1 to November 30 now halfway over. NOAA had forecast least six to ten hurricanes in 2025, including three to five major hurricanes. This year's hurricane, Erin, was a Category 5 storm that occurred between August 11 and 22 and was therefor a major hurricane.
While the 2024 season and its 11 hurricanes - including Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Milton - was well above average in storm count and destruction caused, 2020 was an even more busy year. A total of 14 hurricanes formed over the Atlantic basin - the most since 2005, the year of Hurricane Katrina. Seven of those were major hurricanes, including Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota. In 2022, only two out of eight hurricanes in the Atlantic basin were of category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which is in contrast with the recent trend of 40-50 percent of all Atlantic hurricanes being classified as major ones. In 2023, three out of seven were major hurricanes, or 43 percent.
While in the 1970s and 1980s, the share of major hurricanes stood at an average of around 30-33 percent of all Atlantic hurricanes, this had increased to an average of 40-50 percent per year in the 2000s, 2010s and 2020s. The change translates to an average of 1.6 major hurricanes occurring per year in the 1970s and 1980s and 3-4 occurring annually today. Climate change has been identified as a reason why stronger hurricanes occur.
More evidence that hurricane seasons are changing can be inferred from the timing of named storms. 2021's first storm - Ana - was named on May 22 after forming near the Bahamas. This made 2021 the seventh consecutive year a named storm formed before the start of the official season on June 1. The first named storms of 2022 and 2023 occurred on June 5 and June 1. However, it was discovered later that a storm that occurred in January should have been 2023's first named storm due to its intensity. Pre-season storms did not return in 2024 and 2025.
2005, when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, was the worst hurricane seasons since 1851, records from the National Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA show. Hurricane Katrina was just one of seven major hurricanes observed in the Atlantic basin that year. 2005 was the year with most hurricanes in the Atlantic (15), followed by 2020 (14), 2010 (12, including Hurricane Sandy) and 1969 (also 12).