Trading on Thin Ice: Mapping Partner Dependence on the U.S. Market

The contours of global trade order are being redrawn — not through multilateral consensus, but by unilateral action.

In August, a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. comes into force, following the expiration of a 90-day trade negotiation window offered by the Trump administration. Countries with which the U.S. runs persistent trade deficits have been hit with revised duties — some facing steeper rates than before, others negotiating temporary reprieve.

But tariffs tell only half the story. The real economic weight lies in how deeply these partners depend on the American market.

This chart plots the latest U.S. tariff rates against the share of each partner country’s total exports that go to the U.S. — offering a visual snapshot of which economies are most exposed, and which may have more room to manoeuvre.

Key Highlights:

• Canada: Over 70% of its exports are U.S.-bound, making it America’s most tightly integrated trading partner — and its biggest source of foreign oil. Now faces a 35% tariff.
• India: Hit with a 25% tariff, despite the U.S. accounting for nearly one-fifth of its exports — reflecting deeper trade and services linkages.
• Cambodia: Sends nearly half of its exports to the U.S., and now sees a revised 19% tariff after a ceasefire along its border.
• Thailand: Like Cambodia, its tariff was adjusted to 19% following de-escalation at its frontier — but its U.S. trade exposure remains material.
• Vietnam: Faces a 20% base tariff — plus an additional 40% levy on Chinese-origin goods rerouted through its ports, aimed at curbing transshipment.
• Switzerland: Now subject to a 39% tariff, even though the U.S. accounts for just one-sixth of its total exports — largely in pharma and high-end goods.
• Brazil: Faces one of the steepest tariff packages globally, including a 40% add-on — a move seen as politically driven, despite the U.S. running a goods surplus against it.

Note: A 10% universal tariff will apply to all imports, regardless of origin. Mexico has been granted an extended negotiation window. The EU, while excluded from this chart due to bloc-level reporting, faces a 15% baseline rate across key sectors.

Methodology & Sources

Countries selected are those facing revised U.S. tariffs with which the U.S. runs a goods trade deficit.

• Tariff data as of August 1, 2025 from USTR and public announcements.
• Export share = 2024 U.S. imports (USTR) ÷ total exports (IMF, FOB).
• Mexico excluded (ongoing talks); EU excluded (bloc-level data).
• Minor CIF–FOB differences may apply