Where Data Tells the Story
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Daily petroleum transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by 16.7 million barrels per day (b/d) between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, falling from a pre-conflict baseline of 21.6M b/d to just 4.9M b/d. To bypass this critical chokepoint, Saudi Arabia rerouted flows through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, which grew Bab el-Mandeb transit by 50% from 5.4M b/d to 8.1M b/d. However, because rerouting capacity was limited and more expensive, regional producers were forced to shut-in an average of 5.5M b/d of crude oil production in July 2026. LIMITATIONS: Data points represent monthly and quarterly averages under active shipping disruptions. It does not capture real-time cargo tracking or reflect permanent structural infrastructure changes. Bab el-Mandeb is a partial bypass and does not fully replace the capacity or geopolitical security of the Strait of Hormuz.