Oil Price Shocks

Oil prices have historically reacted quickly to geopolitical shocks, but the magnitude and direction of those moves can vary widely depending on how global supply and demand are affected. This chart compares the first 60 days of Brent crude price movements following several major geopolitical and economic events of the 21st century.

Events that threaten global oil supply tend to push prices higher. Conflicts in major producing regions such as the Iraq War, the Arab Spring, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered noticeable price increases as markets priced in potential disruptions. By contrast, events that weaken global economic activity, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, caused oil prices to collapse as demand fell sharply.

The current U.S.–Israel war with Iran has produced the most dramatic reaction yet. Since the conflict began in February 2026, Brent crude has surged by roughly 80% within the first 34 days, largely driven by disruptions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. With around 20% of global oil supply normally passing through the strait, the conflict highlights how sensitive energy markets remain to geopolitical risk.