India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan
India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, a major water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank. The move came on April 23, within a day of a deadly shooting in Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir, marking the first time the treaty has been paused since the pact’s inception in 1960. In response, Pakistan stated that an attempt to stop the flow of water would be considered an “act of war”. Tensions mounted between the two nuclear-armed nations in the following weeks, breaking out into four days of fighting, before quelling again with a ceasefire mediated by the U.S. announced on Saturday, with both nations pulling back from the brink.
Water resources are an important part of the equation right now between the two countries. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) divides the six main rivers of the Indus basin between the two nations, with the three westerly rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — supplying Pakistan with water, while the three easterly ones — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — feed India.
According to reporting by ABC, in addition to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India has also fast-tracked the construction of four new hydropower projects on rivers flowing into Pakistan and refused to share data on river flows with Islamabad. David Michel, Senior Fellow for the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explains in an analysis that while India cannot completely stop the water flow to Pakistan in the near term due to its current infrastructure, it can stop the flow of information to its neighbor. He explains: “The IWT requires the parties to share a good deal of data on project development, river flows, and hydrological conditions. By suspending the treaty, India can also cease data sharing, depriving Pakistan of flood warnings, for example, prospectively hampering the nation’s water management and potentially imperiling Pakistani lives and livelihoods.”
Observers cite concerns over India’s building of dams, including four which are on one of the westerly rivers intended to supply Pakistan, and flag the issue of what would happen to the flow of water to Pakistan if such infrastructure is expanded to enable more storage.
Pakistan is dependent on the rivers of the Indus basin not only for some of its population’s drinking water, but also for agriculture, which accounts for almost a quarter of the country’s GDP, as well as for power. As data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows, 34.6 TWh of electricity in Pakistan was sourced from hydropower in 2022 (latest available data), all of which comes from the Indus basin. This makes it the second most important energy source for electricity in the country, following only after natural gas (47 TWh or around 27 percent). The next biggest energy sources are oil (16.6 percent), coal (15.9 percent and nuclear (15.6 percent).