Half the World's Economies are Already Past a Peak in Fossil Power

Countries are moving beyond a peak in fossil power in almost every region of the world. 

The EU is leading the way in displacing fossil fuels from the power sector, having cut fossil power by more than 30% in the last 15 years. Among EU countries, all but one (Latvia) have passed the milestone of five years since a peak in fossil power this millennium. Of the larger EU member states, Denmark and Finland have recorded the biggest declines this century, with fossil power generation in 2022 more than 80% below levels reached almost two decades ago.

Oceania is also well into a period of fossil power decline having cut fossil generation by 20% in the last 13 years. Its success is largely down to progress made in Australia and New Zealand, which account for the vast majority (96%) of power demand in the region, and have cut fossil power by 20% and 56%, respectively, from their peaks.

In North America, fossil generation is already 15% lower than it was 15 years ago, largely influenced by changes in the US where fossil use in the power sector has dropped by 14% over the same period. 

Ember’s data also shows that electricity generation from fossil fuels in Africa has plateaued, reducing by 0.5% in the last 3 years. Fossil fuel generation within Latin America and the Caribbean has similarly flattened, a trend that has persisted for over a decade. Peaks are also taking place in some of the largest economies in these regions. Chile’s fossil power is down by 20% from a peak six years ago, despite electricity demand increasing. Nigeria’s fossil power has dropped by 8% in the last 8 years, again while electricity demand has risen.

The only regions that have yet to reach a peak in fossil power are the Middle East and Asia. However, Asia has some success stories. Nepal has removed fossil fuels from its power sector entirely. Japan’s fossil power has dropped by more than a fifth since its peak a decade ago. Viet Nam has reduced its fossil generation by 16% in just three years, largely due to the expansion of wind and solar.

In the Middle East, just two countries with power demand unaffected by major conflicts – Jordan and the UAE – are approaching five years past a peak in fossil power. Of G20 countries, 10 countries are more than five years past a peak in fossil generation – the UK, Italy, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Africa, Australia, the US, France and Argentina, leaving the other 10 yet to reach this milestone. Yet, even in China, where electricity demand is expanding more rapidly than any other country, President Xi has pledged that coal use will begin to fall from 2026, as the country leads the world in wind and solar additions.