Where Data Tells the Story
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Global oil markets shifted rapidly from relative stability to crisis in early 2026. The outbreak of war on February 28 and escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove crude oil prices sharply higher, with the OPEC Reference Basket peaking at $146 per barrel on March 19 amid severe supply concerns. Following the U.S.–Israel–Iran ceasefire and the U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), supply fears eased, sending crude oil back below $70 per barrel by July 2—returning prices to pre-war levels.