Where Data Tells the Story
© Voronoi 2026. All rights reserved.
World merchandise trade was initially expected to contract in 2025. Instead, the WTO's preliminary estimate shows volume growth reached 4.6%. The WTO published three forecast vintages during 2025: -0.2% in April, +0.9% in August and +2.4% in October. The March 2026 estimate exceeded the April forecast by 4.8 percentage points and the final October forecast by 2.2 points. The revisions reflected changing conditions. WTO analysis identified import frontloading and strong trade in AI-related products as major supports. The April forecast was premised on the tariff situation as of 14 April 2025. The 4.6% figure uses data available through 10 March 2026 and remains subject to revision. METHODOLOGY All four values measure annual percentage growth in world merchandise-trade volume. The eligible forecast universe is the WTO's April, August and October 2025 forecast releases. Percentage-point misses are calculated against the March 2026 estimate.