Where Data Tells the Story
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On Wednesday, a day before the latest CPI report showed that consumer price inflation had re-accelerated to 2.9 percent in August, the White House issued a statement headlined “President Trump Has Crushed Biden’s Inflation Crisis”. The statement, which came in response to a lower-than-expected reading of the Producer Price Index, adds to a constant drumbeat of social media posts from Trump, who repeatedly said that there is “no inflation”, a claim which he usually pairs with a call for immediate and dramatic rate cuts from the Fed and its chairman Jerome Powell.
Earlier this month, Trump even said that prices were “way down” for U.S. consumers – a statement that is partly true at best. While some food and energy prices have seen a moderate decline since Trump took office, others have risen, and overall price levels continue to go up as well. In fact, some food staples, e.g. meat, fresh fruit and vegetables and coffee, saw steep price increases in August, with roasted coffee prices jumping as much as 4 percent from July and almost 22 percent year-over-year. These increases are almost certainly related to tariffs, as Brazil is the main source of U.S. coffee imports, and fruit and vegetables are heavily sourced from Mexico, both subject to tariffs.
There appears to be a growing disconnect between President Trump and the American public with respect to inflation. While Trump denies that inflation remains a problem, many Americans are still reeling from high prices. According to a weekly survey from YouGov and The Economist, inflation has been the most important issue for Americans for the past three years, and it still is. In the latest poll, conducted September 5-8, 21 percent of respondents picked inflation and high prices as the most important issue to them, ahead of jobs and the economy (15 percent) and health care (13 percent). At the same time, people are increasingly frustrated with Trump's handling of inflation, with 46 percent of Americans strongly disapproving of the way he’s handling this key issue and another 16 percent somewhat disapproving. Just 32 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat approved of Trump’s handling of inflation, making it the issue he scores worst on.