Where Data Tells the Story
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The U.S. economy remains deeply tied to its top 20 trade partners, which together made up 82% of its trade in 2024. Canada and Mexico stand out, with more than 60% of their total trade flows going to the U.S., underscoring how tightly integrated North America has become under USMCA.
China, on the other hand, shows a very different story. Despite $583B in trade, it faces the highest effective U.S. tariff rate among major partners at 6.1%, reflecting ongoing tensions and the tariff escalation that’s reshaping supply chains. Vietnam and India, both facing higher-than-average tariff rates, are emerging as alternative hubs as U.S. companies diversify away from China. It’s important to note that the current YTD tariffs rates as at July do not include the impact of the “reciprocal” tariffs, mostly set to take effect in August 2025.
Trade today isn’t just about size of flows but it’s increasingly shaped by geopolitics. Tariffs, friend-shoring, and shifting supply chains are redefining how the U.S. engages with its partners, with economic ties now reflecting political alignments as much as market forces.