Where Data Tells the Story
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On February 26, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market was pricing the probability of a U.S. recession this year at approximately 23%.
Four weeks later, that number sits at 36.9% (up 14.4 percentage points in a single month), backed by $919,023 in real-money trading volume.
Today’s visualization shows the implied probability of betting over a one-month window from February 26 to March 28, 2026.
The chart is currently telling a story that Goldman Sachs, one of Wall Street’s most closely watched macro teams, is telling in parallel: a U.S. recession in 2026 is no longer a tail risk.