Where Data Tells the Story
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The OECD has raised its global growth forecast for 2025, now predicting GDP to expand by 3.2 percent, up by 0.3 percentage points from its June estimate. According to the OECD Economic Outlook interim report released on Tuesday, the economy "proved more resilient than anticipated” in the first half of 2025. Key drivers of this stronger-than-anticipated performance include front-loading of goods production and trade ahead of the introduction of higher U.S. tariff rates, strong investment in high-tech sectors and increased government spending in China. However, global GDP growth is still expected to moderate to 2.9 percent in 2026, as the full impact of higher tariffs takes effect.
In addition, the OECD has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for India to 6.7 percent in 2025, up 0.4 percentage points from June. While analysts state that higher tariff rates will weigh on the export sector, overall activity in India is expected to be supported by monetary and fiscal policies. The U.S. growth forecast was also revised upward to 1.8 percent, although this represents a slowdown from the 2.8 percent growth expected in 2024.