Newest Job Revisions Above Average, But Not Unprecedented
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new jobs data revisions on Friday, stating that 258,000 fewer jobs had been added to the U.S. economy in the months of May and June 2025 than had previously been estimated. U.S. President Donald Trump responded to these figures by declaring them a “scam” and proceeding to fire the commissioner of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer.
As BLS data shows, the new revisions for the two months are bigger changes than average in absolute terms, compared to the past few years. In May, the total number of new jobs added were downgraded from 144,000 to just 19,000. In June, the figure fell from 147,000 additional jobs to 14,000. However, nonfarm payrolls growth reached a seasonally adjusted 73,000 for July.
As the following chart shows, revisions are not uncommon. The biggest changes recorded in the past five years were in March and April of 2020, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Combined, the two months saw a downwards revision of 922,000 jobs, amending the preliminary estimate from 21.2 million fewer jobs to 22.2 million fewer jobs, as of the second revision. This change was attributed mostly to the challenges of carrying out the necessary surveys during lockdowns.
Major revisions also took place around the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that major economic disruptions and slowdowns have an affect. An analysis by the BBC explains that later submissions are often from smaller firms, which are more vulnerable to tariffs.
Yet, when calculating the change in jobs growth in May and June 2025 as a percentage, the latest figures are more pronounced. In May, the number of new jobs was revised down by 87 percent between the preliminary data and the second revision. In June 2025, the difference is a decline of 90 percent. In this case, the preliminary data has been compared to the first revision, since the second revision had not yet been released.
While both changes are bigger downgrades proportionally than those of recent years, significant downgrades were also seen under Biden, including a -50 percent drop in June 2023 and -45 percent in August 2024. There have also been upwards revisions under both presidents.
Revisions can happen for several reasons, including delayed responses from survey respondents providing payroll data as well as needs for seasonal adjustments. According to The New York Times, the federal statistical system has faced several challenges in recent years, including falling response rates to government surveys, staff attrition amid hiring freezes and budget cuts.