Interest Rate Forecasts for Advanced Economies (2024-2028)

What We’re Showing

Using data from the IMF's 2024 World Economic Outlook, this chart shows interest rate projections for the U.S., the UK, Europe, and Japan through to the end of 2028.

This visual is part of a special dispatch breaking down the IMF's 2024 World Economic Outlook report. Get the full dispatch of charts and insights by signing up to VC+.

First U.S Rate Cuts Forecasted for Q2 2024

The IMF projects the Federal Reserve will make its first rate cut in the second quarter of this year amid improving disinflation. By late 2026, interest rates are projected to fall to 3.1% after a series of moderate rate cuts.

Interest Rate Outlook for Europe and the UK

Like the U.S., the European Central Bank is forecast to cut rates in the second quarter of 2024, with rates set to fall to 2.6% by 2026. While inflation has cooled at a faster rate across Europe compared to the U.S., GDP growth is also projected to be more muted.

In the UK, monetary easing is projected to move more gradually, with the first cut projected for the third quarter of this year.

Rates Rising Slowly in Japan

After years of negative interest rates, Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 0.0-0.1% in March 2024, partly due to a promising inflation outlook for the coming years. The IMF projects that the next rate hike will take place in the fourth quarter of 2024 as it moves away from a multi-decade battle with deflation.

Get the Full Analysis on VC+

This visual is part of an exclusive special dispatch for VC+ members which breaks down the key takeaways from the IMF's 2024 World Economic Outlook.

For the full set of charts and analysis, sign up for VC+.