Where Data Tells the Story
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Despite uncertain market conditions amid the Trump administration's tariff regime and major global conflicts, the International Monetary Fund has upped its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 slightly. In 2025, the world economy is expected to grow by 3 percent, up from 2.8 percent projected in April. In 2026, this is expected to rise again to 3.1 percent, up from a previous forecast of 3.0 percent. Growth forecasts for most economically advanced countries have also been upped slightly or remained the same, for example in case of the United States, the United Kingdom or Germany. Projections rose a little more for China (while a general slowdown of the country's economy remains on the books), while only some upwards correction was made for India. Downwards changes happened for Japan in 2026 and Russia for both 2025 and 2026.
While the IMF said that uncertainty persisted, including about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and tariffs, it also remarked that financial markets had rallied, the U.S. dollar had depreciated despite expectations to the opposite and yield curves had steepened - implying investors' positive long-term outlook. All this is now leading analysts to believe that the world economy is holding steady and even improving slightly. However, consumer spending was only lackluster globally, with China improving slightly. The country's redirection of export sales to other countries as U.S. tariffs loom large was rated as a sucess and earned the nation its improved forecast.