Where Data Tells the Story
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The IMF’s July 2026 update sharply reordered the outlook for several economies. This chart compares 2026 real GDP growth forecasts from the October 2025 World Economic Outlook with the July 2026 update. Among the 31 economies for which the July release publishes a country forecast in Annex Table 1 or its accompanying text, Vietnam received the largest upgrade: from 5.6% to 7.5%, a rise of 1.9 percentage points. Iran received the largest downgrade: from 1.1% growth to a 5.4% contraction, a 6.5-point cut. Saudi Arabia fell 2.3 points and the Philippines 1.8 points; South Korea rose 0.8 points and Malaysia 0.7 points. The chart shows the five largest upgrades and five largest downgrades. Revision equals the July forecast minus the October forecast. These are changes in forecasts, not realized growth. The universe is limited to economies explicitly updated at country level in the July release. The IMF states that Iran’s forecast is unusually uncertain because of geopolitical and sanctions dynamics.