Where Data Tells the Story
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Within the last two weeks, analytics firm LSEG downgraded mean forward 12-month company earnings for several Asian countries in light of the Trump administration’s global tariffs coming back into effect. India, which together with Brazil is currently facing the highest U.S. import duties of 50 percent, was hit hardest. Earnings for Indian large and mid-sized companies are now expected to be 1.2 percent smaller than forecast two weeks ago – around the time the first round of so-called reciprocal tariffs went back into effect.
Downgraded forecasts also affected Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. While the tariff on goods from Singapore stands at 10 percent, the other three economies face import duties of 19-20 percent – largely unchanged from rates threatened in July. While Indian goods make up 2.7 percent of U.S. imports, this number stood at 3.6 percent in Taiwan, 1.9 percent in Thailand, 1.6 percent in Malaysia and 1.3 percent in Singapore.
Some regional economies whose companies were rated as not affected by the new tariff regime had a smaller share in U.S. imports (of less than 1 percent). These are Australia (at a 10-percent duty) as well as Indonesia and the Philippines (the latter two also at a 19-percent tariff). Other nations in Asia saw forecasts being upgraded despite being active in trade with the United States. These include China (at a 30 percent tariff) as well as Vietnam (20 percent), Japan (15 percent) and South Korea (15 percent). The latter three countries have made trade deals with the U.S. which include lowered duties as well as some exceptions, for example on cars. China meanwhile had a truce with the U.S. extended by three months, avoiding higher tariffs, which contributed to its upgrade.