China Fills U.S. Exports Gap with ASEAN, EU & Africa

China saw a 10.7 percent drop in exports to the United States in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. According to Chinese customs data, this amounts to a decrease of around $25.7 billion. This drop is even with reports of firms stockpiling shipments from China in anticipation of higher tariffs.

But as the following chart shows, Chinese exports to other countries and groups of nations have filled this gap. Exports to the ASEAN countries were up 13 percent when comparing H1 2024 and H1 2025, or $37.1 billion, while exports to the European Union increased by 6.9 percent (+$16.3 billion) and countries in Africa together increased by 21.4 percent (+$18.2 billion). Chinese exports also dropped significantly to Russia in this time period, down 8.7 percent ($-4.5 billion).

According to the OEC, while it may seem that China’s exports to the U.S. have decreased at first glance, a deeper dive shows that the country has rerouted some of its goods through its value chains. "While finished goods may no longer be "Made in China," the parts that power them still are", OEC analysts explain. "China has been fueling new manufacturing hubs, such as Vietnam, Mexico, and India, that have become key sources of electronics for the United States.”

However, even if other countries increase their trade still further with China, it would be a challenge to fully offset the potential losses should U.S. demand decrease significantly. In H1 2025, the U.S. remained one of China’s biggest trading partners, despite the 10.7 percent decline, accounting for $215.6 billion of Chinese exports (11.9 percent of total Chinese exports).