When Will the Global Population Reach Its Peak?

What we're showing

This graphic shows population projections to 2100 from three organizations: the UN, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Key takeaway

While the UN's projections are the most widely used, alternative models have predicted an earlier and lower peak, suggesting that the world’s population could decline sooner than expected.

Context

In the UN’s latest revisions, it lowered its own estimates for global population in 2100, from 10.9 billion (as of 2019) to 10.4 billion (as of 2022).

This is largely due to declining birth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, a trend driven by rising education rates for women as well as greater access to contraceptives.