UN Projections: China’s Population to Decrease Significantly by 2075

What we’re showing

Population data and forecasts for the world’s 6 largest countries. This data comes from the UN World Population Prospects 2022 (latest version).

Projections are based on a medium fertility scenario, which assumes countries will converge at a birth rate of 1.85 children per woman, by 2045-2050.

China’s decline

China’s population boom has officially come to an end, with the country reporting two consecutive years of decreases (down 850K in 2022, and 2.1M in 2023).

The country’s population in 2050 is forecasted to be 1.32B, which is roughly the same as it was in 2007. We can also see that the UN believes this downtrend will accelerate as we enter the second half of the century.

India still has plenty of steam…for now

The UN believes that India’s population will peak somewhere in the mid 2060s, just shy of the 1.7B mark.

Whether these predictions come true will largely depend on how quickly birth rates fall as the country becomes more developed. For example, India's fertility fell from 6.2 in 1950, to 2 in 2021 (births per woman).