Where Data Tells the Story
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The core consumer class expanded by 4% to 6% a year through the 2000s, peaking at 6.2% in 2007 as China and India moved hundreds of millions of people past the $13.20 threshold. That engine is winding down. Growth fell below 3% in 2019, turned negative in 2020 for the only time in the series, rebounded above 6% in 2021, and settles at 2.2% in 2026. By 2036 the rate is 1.4%, which still adds 69 million core consumers in that year alone but represents a structural shift for any business whose volume growth has depended on new entrants rather than on existing customers trading up.