DemographicsAug 7, 2024
The Global Population Could Start Shrinking by 2084
@visualcapitalist
What we’re showing
This graphic visualizes the latest UN projections for the number of global births and deaths. Figures were sourced from the World Population Prospects 2024.
Key takeaway
As birth rates fall around the world, the number of deaths occurring each year is expected to surpass the number of births by 2084. This could potentially kick off an era of global population decline.
Dataset
| Year | Births | Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 91,824,000 | 48,487,000 |
| 1951 | 92,507,000 | 48,176,000 |
| 1952 | 97,371,000 | 47,383,000 |
| 1953 | 97,291,000 | 47,240,000 |
| 1954 | 100,188,000 | 46,662,000 |
| 1955 | 101,748,000 | 46,636,000 |
| 1956 | 101,759,000 | 46,479,000 |
| 1957 | 106,018,000 | 46,881,000 |
| 1958 | 104,644,000 | 46,518,000 |
| 1959 | 102,000,000 | 50,725,000 |
| 1960 | 102,378,000 | 54,612,000 |
| 1961 | 100,951,000 | 49,919,000 |
| 1962 | 112,039,000 | 46,061,000 |
| 1963 | 119,803,000 | 46,913,000 |
| 1964 | 117,292,000 | 46,823,000 |
| 1965 | 117,837,000 | 48,214,000 |
| 1966 | 117,233,000 | 47,842,000 |
| 1967 | 116,920,000 | 47,569,000 |
| 1968 | 121,826,000 | 47,629,000 |
| 1969 | 122,228,000 | 47,816,000 |
| 1970 | 124,136,000 | 48,163,000 |
| 1971 | 123,740,000 | 49,384,000 |
| 1972 | 123,554,000 | 47,770,000 |
| 1973 | 123,564,000 | 47,573,000 |
| 1974 | 122,709,000 | 47,478,000 |
| 1975 | 121,030,000 | 47,623,000 |
| 1976 | 121,322,000 | 47,707,000 |
| 1977 | 120,787,000 | 47,167,000 |
| 1978 | 122,141,000 | 47,293,000 |
| 1979 | 125,000,000 | 46,964,000 |
| 1980 | 127,447,000 | 47,350,000 |
| 1981 | 129,716,000 | 47,471,000 |
| 1982 | 133,207,000 | 47,659,000 |
| 1983 | 131,968,000 | 48,207,000 |
| 1984 | 134,365,000 | 48,431,000 |
| 1985 | 136,374,000 | 48,773,000 |
| 1986 | 139,301,000 | 48,644,000 |
| 1987 | 141,347,000 | 48,657,000 |
| 1988 | 140,986,000 | 49,183,000 |
| 1989 | 142,249,000 | 49,178,000 |
| 1990 | 143,461,000 | 49,794,000 |
| 1991 | 138,307,000 | 50,108,000 |
| 1992 | 136,591,000 | 50,282,000 |
| 1993 | 135,632,000 | 50,832,000 |
| 1994 | 135,143,000 | 51,931,000 |
| 1995 | 134,850,000 | 51,407,000 |
| 1996 | 134,321,000 | 51,411,000 |
| 1997 | 133,986,000 | 51,432,000 |
| 1998 | 133,858,000 | 51,854,000 |
| 1999 | 134,059,000 | 52,184,000 |
| 2000 | 135,758,000 | 52,240,000 |
| 2001 | 135,380,000 | 52,431,000 |
| 2002 | 135,396,000 | 52,758,000 |
| 2003 | 135,701,000 | 53,077,000 |
| 2004 | 136,596,000 | 53,188,000 |
| 2005 | 137,166,000 | 53,390,000 |
| 2006 | 138,469,000 | 53,282,000 |
| 2007 | 139,936,000 | 53,410,000 |
| 2008 | 141,759,000 | 53,987,000 |
| 2009 | 142,968,000 | 54,123,000 |
| 2010 | 143,354,000 | 54,269,000 |
| 2011 | 143,879,000 | 54,581,000 |
| 2012 | 146,055,000 | 54,795,000 |
| 2013 | 145,015,000 | 55,093,000 |
| 2014 | 145,268,000 | 55,545,000 |
| 2015 | 144,334,000 | 56,306,000 |
| 2016 | 144,854,000 | 56,757,000 |
| 2017 | 143,602,000 | 57,572,000 |
| 2018 | 140,333,000 | 57,793,000 |
| 2019 | 138,597,000 | 58,355,000 |
| 2020 | 134,720,000 | 63,546,000 |
| 2021 | 133,449,000 | 69,728,000 |
| 2022 | 132,475,000 | 62,279,000 |
| 2023 | 132,110,000 | 61,652,000 |
| 2024 | 132,406,000 | 62,389,000 |
| 2025 | 132,399,000 | 63,136,000 |
| 2026 | 132,503,000 | 63,637,000 |
| 2027 | 132,591,000 | 64,626,000 |
| 2028 | 132,761,000 | 65,678,000 |
| 2029 | 132,989,000 | 66,739,000 |
| 2030 | 133,256,000 | 67,827,000 |
| 2031 | 133,513,000 | 68,954,000 |
| 2032 | 133,765,000 | 70,103,000 |
| 2033 | 134,065,000 | 71,289,000 |
| 2034 | 134,381,000 | 72,486,000 |
| 2035 | 134,669,000 | 73,714,000 |
| 2036 | 134,946,000 | 74,948,000 |
| 2037 | 135,141,000 | 76,206,000 |
| 2038 | 135,355,000 | 77,450,000 |
| 2039 | 135,515,000 | 78,710,000 |
| 2040 | 135,669,000 | 79,951,000 |
| 2041 | 135,673,000 | 81,209,000 |
| 2042 | 135,636,000 | 82,443,000 |
| 2043 | 135,581,000 | 83,672,000 |
| 2044 | 135,407,000 | 84,890,000 |
| 2045 | 135,109,000 | 86,093,000 |
| 2046 | 134,764,000 | 87,282,000 |
| 2047 | 134,271,000 | 88,448,000 |
| 2048 | 133,752,000 | 89,607,000 |
| 2049 | 133,163,000 | 90,746,000 |
| 2050 | 132,555,000 | 91,877,000 |
| 2051 | 131,923,000 | 92,986,000 |
| 2052 | 131,280,000 | 94,084,000 |
| 2053 | 130,667,000 | 95,173,000 |
| 2054 | 130,020,000 | 96,249,000 |
| 2055 | 129,485,000 | 97,293,000 |
| 2056 | 128,995,000 | 98,309,000 |
| 2057 | 128,531,000 | 99,310,000 |
| 2058 | 128,110,000 | 100,283,000 |
| 2059 | 127,755,000 | 101,242,000 |
| 2060 | 127,431,000 | 102,157,000 |
| 2061 | 127,117,000 | 103,025,000 |
| 2062 | 126,876,000 | 103,870,000 |
| 2063 | 126,635,000 | 104,678,000 |
| 2064 | 126,430,000 | 105,485,000 |
| 2065 | 126,218,000 | 106,273,000 |
| 2066 | 126,019,000 | 107,032,000 |
| 2067 | 125,793,000 | 107,799,000 |
| 2068 | 125,547,000 | 108,554,000 |
| 2069 | 125,260,000 | 109,292,000 |
| 2070 | 124,986,000 | 110,035,000 |
| 2071 | 124,696,000 | 110,770,000 |
| 2072 | 124,348,000 | 111,529,000 |
| 2073 | 123,982,000 | 112,258,000 |
| 2074 | 123,573,000 | 112,984,000 |
| 2075 | 123,140,000 | 113,707,000 |
| 2076 | 122,693,000 | 114,417,000 |
| 2077 | 122,209,000 | 115,099,000 |
| 2078 | 121,660,000 | 115,749,000 |
| 2079 | 121,107,000 | 116,357,000 |
| 2080 | 120,555,000 | 116,924,000 |
| 2081 | 119,955,000 | 117,418,000 |
| 2082 | 119,412,000 | 117,862,000 |
| 2083 | 118,804,000 | 118,270,000 |
| 2084 | 118,220,000 | 118,619,000 |
| 2085 | 117,622,000 | 118,941,000 |
| 2086 | 117,028,000 | 119,206,000 |
| 2087 | 116,442,000 | 119,458,000 |
| 2088 | 115,886,000 | 119,684,000 |
| 2089 | 115,345,000 | 119,920,000 |
| 2090 | 114,805,000 | 120,136,000 |
| 2091 | 114,283,000 | 120,359,000 |
| 2092 | 113,773,000 | 120,604,000 |
| 2093 | 113,262,000 | 120,878,000 |
| 2094 | 112,773,000 | 121,154,000 |
| 2095 | 112,282,000 | 121,465,000 |
| 2096 | 111,831,000 | 121,754,000 |
| 2097 | 111,397,000 | 122,077,000 |
| 2098 | 110,941,000 | 122,380,000 |
| 2099 | 110,501,000 | 122,664,000 |
| 2100 | 110,028,000 | 122,922,000 |
Data sources
Projections based on UN medium fertility scenario, which assumes fertility in all countries will converge eventually toward a level of 1.85 children per woman.
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