DemographicsAug 7, 2024
The Global Population Could Start Shrinking by 2084
What we’re showing
This graphic visualizes the latest UN projections for the number of global births and deaths. Figures were sourced from the World Population Prospects 2024.
Key takeaway
As birth rates fall around the world, the number of deaths occurring each year is expected to surpass the number of births by 2084. This could potentially kick off an era of global population decline.
Dataset
Year | Births | Deaths |
---|---|---|
1950 | 91,824,000 | 48,487,000 |
1951 | 92,507,000 | 48,176,000 |
1952 | 97,371,000 | 47,383,000 |
1953 | 97,291,000 | 47,240,000 |
1954 | 100,188,000 | 46,662,000 |
1955 | 101,748,000 | 46,636,000 |
1956 | 101,759,000 | 46,479,000 |
1957 | 106,018,000 | 46,881,000 |
1958 | 104,644,000 | 46,518,000 |
1959 | 102,000,000 | 50,725,000 |
1960 | 102,378,000 | 54,612,000 |
1961 | 100,951,000 | 49,919,000 |
1962 | 112,039,000 | 46,061,000 |
1963 | 119,803,000 | 46,913,000 |
1964 | 117,292,000 | 46,823,000 |
1965 | 117,837,000 | 48,214,000 |
1966 | 117,233,000 | 47,842,000 |
1967 | 116,920,000 | 47,569,000 |
1968 | 121,826,000 | 47,629,000 |
1969 | 122,228,000 | 47,816,000 |
1970 | 124,136,000 | 48,163,000 |
1971 | 123,740,000 | 49,384,000 |
1972 | 123,554,000 | 47,770,000 |
1973 | 123,564,000 | 47,573,000 |
1974 | 122,709,000 | 47,478,000 |
1975 | 121,030,000 | 47,623,000 |
1976 | 121,322,000 | 47,707,000 |
1977 | 120,787,000 | 47,167,000 |
1978 | 122,141,000 | 47,293,000 |
1979 | 125,000,000 | 46,964,000 |
1980 | 127,447,000 | 47,350,000 |
1981 | 129,716,000 | 47,471,000 |
1982 | 133,207,000 | 47,659,000 |
1983 | 131,968,000 | 48,207,000 |
1984 | 134,365,000 | 48,431,000 |
1985 | 136,374,000 | 48,773,000 |
1986 | 139,301,000 | 48,644,000 |
1987 | 141,347,000 | 48,657,000 |
1988 | 140,986,000 | 49,183,000 |
1989 | 142,249,000 | 49,178,000 |
1990 | 143,461,000 | 49,794,000 |
1991 | 138,307,000 | 50,108,000 |
1992 | 136,591,000 | 50,282,000 |
1993 | 135,632,000 | 50,832,000 |
1994 | 135,143,000 | 51,931,000 |
1995 | 134,850,000 | 51,407,000 |
1996 | 134,321,000 | 51,411,000 |
1997 | 133,986,000 | 51,432,000 |
1998 | 133,858,000 | 51,854,000 |
1999 | 134,059,000 | 52,184,000 |
2000 | 135,758,000 | 52,240,000 |
2001 | 135,380,000 | 52,431,000 |
2002 | 135,396,000 | 52,758,000 |
2003 | 135,701,000 | 53,077,000 |
2004 | 136,596,000 | 53,188,000 |
2005 | 137,166,000 | 53,390,000 |
2006 | 138,469,000 | 53,282,000 |
2007 | 139,936,000 | 53,410,000 |
2008 | 141,759,000 | 53,987,000 |
2009 | 142,968,000 | 54,123,000 |
2010 | 143,354,000 | 54,269,000 |
2011 | 143,879,000 | 54,581,000 |
2012 | 146,055,000 | 54,795,000 |
2013 | 145,015,000 | 55,093,000 |
2014 | 145,268,000 | 55,545,000 |
2015 | 144,334,000 | 56,306,000 |
2016 | 144,854,000 | 56,757,000 |
2017 | 143,602,000 | 57,572,000 |
2018 | 140,333,000 | 57,793,000 |
2019 | 138,597,000 | 58,355,000 |
2020 | 134,720,000 | 63,546,000 |
2021 | 133,449,000 | 69,728,000 |
2022 | 132,475,000 | 62,279,000 |
2023 | 132,110,000 | 61,652,000 |
2024 | 132,406,000 | 62,389,000 |
2025 | 132,399,000 | 63,136,000 |
2026 | 132,503,000 | 63,637,000 |
2027 | 132,591,000 | 64,626,000 |
2028 | 132,761,000 | 65,678,000 |
2029 | 132,989,000 | 66,739,000 |
2030 | 133,256,000 | 67,827,000 |
2031 | 133,513,000 | 68,954,000 |
2032 | 133,765,000 | 70,103,000 |
2033 | 134,065,000 | 71,289,000 |
2034 | 134,381,000 | 72,486,000 |
2035 | 134,669,000 | 73,714,000 |
2036 | 134,946,000 | 74,948,000 |
2037 | 135,141,000 | 76,206,000 |
2038 | 135,355,000 | 77,450,000 |
2039 | 135,515,000 | 78,710,000 |
2040 | 135,669,000 | 79,951,000 |
2041 | 135,673,000 | 81,209,000 |
2042 | 135,636,000 | 82,443,000 |
2043 | 135,581,000 | 83,672,000 |
2044 | 135,407,000 | 84,890,000 |
2045 | 135,109,000 | 86,093,000 |
2046 | 134,764,000 | 87,282,000 |
2047 | 134,271,000 | 88,448,000 |
2048 | 133,752,000 | 89,607,000 |
2049 | 133,163,000 | 90,746,000 |
2050 | 132,555,000 | 91,877,000 |
2051 | 131,923,000 | 92,986,000 |
2052 | 131,280,000 | 94,084,000 |
2053 | 130,667,000 | 95,173,000 |
2054 | 130,020,000 | 96,249,000 |
2055 | 129,485,000 | 97,293,000 |
2056 | 128,995,000 | 98,309,000 |
2057 | 128,531,000 | 99,310,000 |
2058 | 128,110,000 | 100,283,000 |
2059 | 127,755,000 | 101,242,000 |
2060 | 127,431,000 | 102,157,000 |
2061 | 127,117,000 | 103,025,000 |
2062 | 126,876,000 | 103,870,000 |
2063 | 126,635,000 | 104,678,000 |
2064 | 126,430,000 | 105,485,000 |
2065 | 126,218,000 | 106,273,000 |
2066 | 126,019,000 | 107,032,000 |
2067 | 125,793,000 | 107,799,000 |
2068 | 125,547,000 | 108,554,000 |
2069 | 125,260,000 | 109,292,000 |
2070 | 124,986,000 | 110,035,000 |
2071 | 124,696,000 | 110,770,000 |
2072 | 124,348,000 | 111,529,000 |
2073 | 123,982,000 | 112,258,000 |
2074 | 123,573,000 | 112,984,000 |
2075 | 123,140,000 | 113,707,000 |
2076 | 122,693,000 | 114,417,000 |
2077 | 122,209,000 | 115,099,000 |
2078 | 121,660,000 | 115,749,000 |
2079 | 121,107,000 | 116,357,000 |
2080 | 120,555,000 | 116,924,000 |
2081 | 119,955,000 | 117,418,000 |
2082 | 119,412,000 | 117,862,000 |
2083 | 118,804,000 | 118,270,000 |
2084 | 118,220,000 | 118,619,000 |
2085 | 117,622,000 | 118,941,000 |
2086 | 117,028,000 | 119,206,000 |
2087 | 116,442,000 | 119,458,000 |
2088 | 115,886,000 | 119,684,000 |
2089 | 115,345,000 | 119,920,000 |
2090 | 114,805,000 | 120,136,000 |
2091 | 114,283,000 | 120,359,000 |
2092 | 113,773,000 | 120,604,000 |
2093 | 113,262,000 | 120,878,000 |
2094 | 112,773,000 | 121,154,000 |
2095 | 112,282,000 | 121,465,000 |
2096 | 111,831,000 | 121,754,000 |
2097 | 111,397,000 | 122,077,000 |
2098 | 110,941,000 | 122,380,000 |
2099 | 110,501,000 | 122,664,000 |
2100 | 110,028,000 | 122,922,000 |
Data sources
Projections based on UN medium fertility scenario, which assumes fertility in all countries will converge eventually toward a level of 1.85 children per woman.
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