Continental Shift: The World's Most Populous Countries

According to United Nations’ latest projections of global population, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in April 2023. Having gradually closed the gap to China from more than 200 million people in 2000 to little more than 10 million in 2022, the UN Population Division estimates that India's population reached 1,438 million in July 2023, surpassing long-time leader China by 15 million people.

In recent years, China's population growth has slowed down notably due to its one-child policy before reaching an inflection point in 2021, when the country's population declined for the first time since 1961, when three years of famine had decimated the Chinese population. For India, which is currently expected to continue growing until the 2060s, its new position as the world’s most populous country will come with a new set of challenges, both domestically and internationally. These challenges include providing access to healthcare, education and employment opportunities to an ever-growing number of people, all while finding its role in the global political and economic landscape.

Looking beyond India and China, the UN predicts a continental shift in population growth over the next few decades. With Europe's population already declining and Asia's and Latin America's growth expected to turn negative in the 2050s, Africa is set to be the largest driver of global population growth for decades to come. By 2100, four African nations are expected to join India, China, and the United States among the world's 10 most populous countries, with Nigeria's population projected to approach half a billion by the end of the century. This demographic shift at the global level will require new approaches to managing resources, promoting sustainable development and addressing issues such as poverty, inequality and migration.