Charting the Median Age of Countries in the EU
This article looks at the impact of demographic ageing within the European Union (EU), which is likely to be of major significance in the coming decades. Consistently low birth rates and higher life expectancy are transforming the shape of the EU's population pyramid. Probably the most important change will be the marked transition towards a much older population structure, a development that is already apparent in several EU countries.
As a result of demographic change, the proportion of people of working age in the EU is shrinking while the relative number of those retired is expanding. The share of older people in the total population is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This may, in turn, lead to an increased burden on those of working age to provide for the social expenditure required by the ageing population for a range of related services.
The share of elderly people continues to increase
The population of the EU on 1 January 2024 was estimated at 449.3 million people. Children aged between 0 and 14 years made up 14.6% of the EU's population (Table 1), while people considered to be of working age (15 to 64 years) accounted for 63.8% of the population. Older people (aged 65 years and over) had a 21.6% share (an increase of 0.3 percentage points (pp) compared with the previous year and an increase of 2.9pp compared with 10 years earlier). For comparison, in 2023 the 3 population groups, children (0 to 14 years), working age (15 to 64 years) and older people (aged 65 years and over) represented, respectively, 14.8%, 63.8% and 21.3% of the EU's population.
Across EU countries, the highest shares of children in the total population in 2024 were observed in Ireland (18.9%), Sweden (17.1%) and France (17.0%), while the lowest shares were recorded in Italy, (12.2%), Malta (12.3%) and Portugal (12.8%). Compared with 2023, only 2 EU countries (Hungary and Austria) had a constant share of children in the population in 2024, while in the other countries this share fell. Regarding the share of older people in the total population, Italy (24.3%), Portugal (24.1%), Bulgaria (23.8%), Finland (23.4%), Greece (23.3%) and Croatia (23.0%) had the highest shares, while Luxembourg (15.0%) and Ireland (15.5%) had the lowest shares. In 2024, compared with 2023, the share of older people increased in 26 EU countries, while it only decreased in Malta.