Are "Dragon Babies" Bumping up China's Birth Rate?

The year of the dragon ends as the year of the snake begins today in China according to the Chinese lunar calendar. Carrying the zodiac sign of the dragon, which has been associated with the birth years 2024, 2012, 2000 and 1988 most recently, is considered desirable among Chinese as people born under the dragon sign are said to be more lucky, intelligent and successful. This led to a small bump in births in China in the past year - which the country dealing with a rapidly ageing society desperately needs. However, this was not enough to (at least temporarily) reverse China's shrinking population. In 2024, the population in the country dropped by 0.1 percent compared to 0.15 percent in 2023. 

This development shows that the status of the dragon as the star among star signs is considered so outstanding that Chinese people are in fact attempting to have a child in dragon years. Data by the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that the dragon baby bump in 2024 is clearly visible, but also exemplifies how insignificant it is compared to how much Chinese birth rates have fallen recently. In 2012, the previous year of the dragon, China also saw an increase of births to around 14.5 million, the most since 1999, despite an otherwise falling trend. However, in the early 2010s, the Chinese birth rate saw a lot of ups and downs, and while 2012 was in fact the biggest up, it could have been incidental. In 2000 and 1988, the year of the dragon did not stand out from the trend in term of births.

While there have been reports that in previous decades, births plummeted in the year following the year of the dragon, the data shows that in the year 2000 as well as in 1988, this development was part of a general downwards trend that started before the "dragon years" and continued after them. Despite this, other positive developments can come out of the year-of-the-dragon frenzy as the wedding industry and gold sellers report an increase of dragon-related demand.