Heavy Monsoon Rains Hit India One Month Into Season

In late June and early July - around one month into the monsoon season - India has experienced a spike in rainfall volumes that led to massive floods. According to the BBC, millions are currently affected and more than 70 have died. In Northern India, rivers like the Brahmaputra and the Koshi overflowed, but schools also closed in parts of Mumbai after heavy rains. Neighboring countries Bangladesh and Nepal also counted several victims of the flooding.

As seen in data by the India Meteorological Department Pune, mean daily rainfall in India started so surpass its long-term averages as of June 27. The trend continued until July 9 - the latest day on record at the time of writing - with spikes recorded on July 1 and July 6. Looking at the (pre-) monsoon season as a whole, monthly rain volumes actually stayed below average in all months except May. Between July 1 and July 9, the country has already seen a cumulative 95 millimeters per m² of rainfall, which would slightly surpass the July monthly average recorded for the years 1901-2019 if extrapolated. However, as heavy rains are likely not lasting the entire month of July, a below-average result is still a possibility. This is caused by some regions in India continuing to record a monsoon season (June-July) rain deficit. It also shows that concentrated heavy rains can have catastrophic consequences even if monthly or yearly average are not surpassed. Climate change has been proven to make these types of events more potent as well as frequent.